When your forecast isn’t a forecast.

Congratulations. You’ve created a beautiful pile of lies. But hey, nice pie charts!

Let’s talk about your forecast. You know - that sparkling spreadsheet of dreams that says you’ll hit record-breaking revenue by the end of Q3, your expenses will stay miraculously flat, and your cash flow will look like the Himalayas (but only the upward bits).

We’ve seen it before. The charts look incredible. Sleek, multi-tabbed dashboards. Maybe even a PowerPoint deck that could seduce a room full of sceptics.

But there’s just one problem: It’s not a forecast. It’s a fairy tale.

Forecasts = Friction (Despite what your charts suggest).

A forecast is supposed to be a grounded, data-informed view of what’s likely to happen, not what you hope will happen if the stars align, your biggest client suddenly pays early, and Carol stops impulse-buying “backup stock just in case.”

Once you have that basis, scenarios can be introduced for “what if the stars align” or “your sales team nailed it harder than two double cheeseburgers and cheesy chips on cheat day”. You can also plan for the downward results that nobody wants to talk about, such as losing your two biggest customers or the impact of buying the latest piece of equipment. The point it’s adaptable to what happens.

What do we usually see?

• Last year’s numbers + 20% growth “just to be safe” without regard to where that growth is coming from.

• A complete disregard for seasonality, cash burn, or reality

• Expense lines that are suspiciously flat and conveniently low

• Revenue forecasts that scream, “Sheer optimism and Jeff’s good vibes”

You didn’t build a forecast. You built a financial vision board. Congratulations.

Where forecasts go to die. Why do we lie to ourselves?

It’s not that you’re trying to deceive anyone. It’s just that Excel or other software you are using gives us a false sense of power. You drag a few formulas, slap in some conditional formatting, and suddenly you're a data wizard, Harry with a magic wand and a 12-month “hockey stick” of growth.

But here’s the kicker: Pretty visuals don’t fix bad assumptions. They just distract from them with more colour. It’s financial catfishing.

If any of these sound familiar, you may be running a Forecast Theatre:

• The copy-paste prophecy: “Let’s just use last year’s numbers and change a few bits to make it look fresh.”

• The wishful wizardry: “I know we haven’t hit our targets for 6 quarters, but this time it’ll work because… [insert vague justification].”

• The “we will-fix-it-in-post meeting”: "Don't worry, we'll clean the data up later." Spoiler: You won't.

These aren’t forecasts. These are bedtime stories for the finance team.

Forecast done right (It’s not exciting, but it works)

Look, we love a good graph as much as anyone. But a proper forecast is built on:

• Clean, current, and complete data

• Well-defined assumptions (that someone actually questioned)

• Scenario planning for when things go wrong (because they will)

• Connected operational insight — not just the finance team guessing with a calculator and blind hope

Good forecasting is messy, collaborative, sometimes a little painful… But it keeps your business alive and keeps your management team from later “stress-casting" - The fine art of quickly having to re-forecast every month while teetering on the edge of a group meltdown.

Automation can help - But only if you stop lying first

Yes, we can help you build a smarter, faster, more accurate forecasts. But if your starting point is a pile of guesswork wearing a an Excel or Power BI tuxedo — well, all you’ve done is turn your lies into an interactive dashboard.

Automation won’t save you from garbage assumptions. It’ll just make them look even more convincing.

Stop pretending that a rainbow-coloured pie chart means anything if the data behind it was built on hope, unicorn dust, and heroic optimism.

Your forecast isn’t for impressing your investors. It’s for preparing your business.

And if you’d rather look good than be ready — well, we salute your courage, but we don’t recommend it.

At Enubilous, we love a sharp dashboard and a well-designed graph. But we love cold, unflinching financial truth even more.

So before you bet your business on “Jeff’s good vibes”, let’s get grounded.

Because when a forecast isn’t a forecast… Congratulations. You’ve created a beautiful pile of lies. But hey — nice pie charts.